Abstract
The purpose of this quantitative study was to examine the predictive validity of the Public Safety Assessment (PSA) as an actuarial pre-trial risk assessment instrument in Volusia County, Florida. Volusia County is the first jurisdiction in the state of Florida to administer the PSA and the findings of this study could prove helpful to other jurisdictions desiring to implement the PSA. The primary independent variables of the study were the PSA risk scores for failure to appear and new criminal activity for all assessed and released defendants. Each of the research hypotheses helped inform the main research question by examining the significance of race, gender, and days spent in pretrial custody on defendant failure to appear and new criminal activity charge rates. Six logistic regression models were used to analyze the data. The findings demonstrated that defendants within the study population were accurately placed into risk categories by the PSA and that white defendants were slightly more likely to commit new crime during the pretrial stage of their case than black defendants. To address the pretrial justice issues presented by the findings, a multi-tiered approach was proposed. The proposed approaches included the updating of state pretrial release statutes, the creation of national pretrial risk assessment standards governing actuarial pretrial risk assessment, and alternatives to financial pretrial release options with the aim being more informed, equitable, and safer pretrial release decisions. This study has broad implications for jurisdictions interested in implementing a validated actuarial pretrial risk instrument.|Keywords: Actuarial risk assessment, pretrial risk assessment, Public Safety Assessment