Abstract
We examined the influence of abiotic drivers on inter-annual and phenological patterns of aboveground biomass for Marsh Cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora, on the Central Georgia Coast. The linkages between drivers and plant response via soil edaphic factors are captured in our graphical conceptual model. We used geospatial techniques to scale up in situ measurements of aboveground S. alterniflora biomass to landscape level estimates using 294 Landsat 5 TM scenes acquired between 1984 and 2011. For each scene we extracted data from the same 63 sampling polygons, containing 1222 pixels covering about 1.1 million m2. Using univariate and multiple regression tests, we compared Landsat derived biomass estimates for three S. alterniflora size classes against a suite of abiotic drivers. River discharge, total precipitation, minimum temperature, and mean sea level had positive relationships with and best explained biomass for all dates. Additional results, using seasonally binned data, indicated biomass was responsive to changing combinations of variables across the seasons. Our 28-year analysis revealed aboveground biomass declines of 33%, 35%, and 39% for S. alterniflora tall, medium, and short size classes, respectively. This decline correlated with drought frequency and severity trends and coincided with marsh die-backs events and increased snail herbivory in the second half of the study period.