Abstract
In a highly industrialized nation like the United States, the economy is characterized by fluctuations of business activity that affect the policies of government, the operations of business, the welfare of labor, and the general well-being of every citizen. It is impossible to forecast these fluctuations by set formulas or mechanical means primarily because we have a free economy wherein decisions are made by free individuals. However, great strides have been made in the forecasting techniques that bear on the activities of the national economy, the industry, and the firm. To be able to anticipate without error business fluctuations would be to insure such economic security that business could be insulated against disastrous change and the most could be made of every opportunity to grow. While progress Is being made in this direction, it is unlikely that perfect forecasting will ever be achieved.