Abstract
This thesis considers whether international coercion used to confront deviant behavior in renegade or rogue regimes produces an offset of the benefits of continued defiant behavior, or produces a restructuring of incentives and a counterproductive result. Much has been written on the effectiveness of international coercion, but little focus has been given to the potential for a pressure to restructure the decision process in a non-desired way. This thesis contrasts the expectations of rational choice and expected-utility theory with prospect theory in the decision calculus of renegade regimes. Finally, this thesis creates a basic model for limited prediction by combining expectations of prospect theory with the incentive offsetting/incentive restructuring (IO/IR) models as proposed by Miroslav Nincic.