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Development and validation of a prognostic score for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Development and validation of a prognostic score for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Mustafa Raoof, Sinziana Dumitra, Philip H. G. Ituarte, Laleh Melstrom, Susanne G. Warner, Yuman Fong and Gagandeep Singh
JAMA Surgery, Vol.152(5)
2017

Abstract

Age Factors Aged Bile Duct Neoplasms Bile Ducts, Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Female Follow-Up Studies Hepatectomy Humans Kaplan-Meier Estimate Lymphatic Metastasis Male Middle Aged Neoplasm Grading Neoplasm Invasiveness Neoplasms, Multiple Primary Prognosis Proportional Hazards Models Registries Survival Rate Tumor Burden antineoplastic agent adjuvant therapy adult Article bile duct carcinoma blood transfusion cancer chemotherapy cancer grading cancer patient cancer prognosis cancer radiotherapy cancer registry cancer size cancer staging cancer surgery cancer survival controlled study female hemihepatectomy human liver resection lymph node dissection major clinical study male MEGNA prognostic score middle aged morbidity outcome assessment overall survival perioperative period postoperative hemorrhage priority journal prognostic assessment scoring system surgical mortality age aged Bile Duct Neoplasms Cholangiocarcinoma follow up intrahepatic bile duct Kaplan Meier method lymph node metastasis Neoplasms, Multiple Primary pathology prognosis proportional hazards model register secondary survival rate tumor invasion tumor volume validation study
IMPORTANCE In patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), the oncologic benefit of surgery and perioperative outcomes for large multifocal tumors or tumors with contiguous organ involvement remain to be defined. OBJECTIVES To develop and externally validate a simplified prognostic score for ICC and to determine perioperative outcomes for large multifocal ICCs or tumors with contiguous organ involvement. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study of a contemporary cohort merged data from the California Cancer Registry (January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2011) and the Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development inpatient database. Clinicopathologic variables were compared between tumors that were intrahepatic, small (<7 cm), and solitary (ISS) and those that had extrahepatic extension and were large (≥7 cm) and multifocal (ELM). External validation of the prognostic model was performed using an independent data set from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2013. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Patient overall survival after hepatectomy. RESULTS A total of 275 patients (123 men [44.7%] and 152 women [55.3%]; median [interquartile range] age, 65 [55-72] years) met the inclusion criteria. No significant differences in overall complication rate (ISS, 48 [34.5%]; ELM, 37 [27.2%]; P =.19) and mortality rate (ISS, 10 [7.2%]; ELM, 6 [4.4%]; P =.32) were found. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that multifocality, extrahepatic extension, grade, node positivity, and age greater than 60 years are independently associated with worse overall survival. These variables were used to develop the MEGNA prognostic score. The prognostic separation/discrimination index was improved with the MEGNA prognostic score (0.21; 95% CI, 0.11-0.33) compared with the staging systems of the American Joint Committee on Cancer sixth (0.17; 95% CI, 0.09-0.29) and seventh (0.18; 95% CI, 0.08-0.30) editions. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The MEGNA prognostic score allows more accurate and superior estimation of patient survival after hepatectomy compared with current staging systems. © 2017 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

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