Abstract
NATO and European Union (EU) membership are fundamental aims of the Lithuanian foreign politics. These aims provide for Lithuania’s integration into European security, political and economic structures. The aspiration to join the EU was more actively opposed in Lithuania than the aim to join NATO. Many Lithuanian politicians expressed their doubts with regard to the benefits of the EU membership or at least offered to consider a gradual integration into the European area. On the other hand, the idea of NATO membership was regarded more favourably. Key national political parties signed an agreement on the defence budget and accession to the Alliance. Despite the public support, Lithuania lacks studies on conditions necessary for the accession to NATO. The attempts to analyse this problem are usually normative, limited to Lithuania and ignoring Lithuania’s relations with other concerned participants of political processes and consequences thereof. The majority of studies are based on research methods used in such sciences as history, philosophy and journalism instead of using research methods of contemporary political sciences. The article offers an empirical analysis of the problem of Lithuania’s membership in NATO based on the theory of games. The article offers and justifies the idea that in order to assess the conditions on which Lithuania may become a NATO member, it is necessary to analyse Lithuania’s relations with other states. Lithuania’s membership does not depend only on the wishes and efforts of the state itself. The systemic analysis reveals interesting challenges and objectives for Lithuania, which are difficult to identify by applying other methods of analysis.