Abstract
Objectives. To examine trends in partisan polarization of childhood vaccine bills and the impact of polarization on bill passage in the United States.
Methods. We performed content analysis on 1497 US state bills (1995-2020) and obtained voting returns for 228 legislative votes (2011-2020). We performed descriptive and statistical analyses using 2 measures of polarization.
Results. Vote polarization rose more rapidly for immunization than abortion or veterans' affairs bills. Bills in 2019-2020 were more than 7 times more likely to be polarized than in 1995-1996 (odds ratio [OR] 57.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] 53.54, 13.99). Bills related to public health emergencies were more polarized (OR51.76; 95% CI51.13, 2.75). Sponsor polarization was associated with 34% lower odds of passage (OR50.66; 95% CI50.42, 1.03).
Conclusions. State lawmakers were more divided on vaccine policy, but partisan bills were less likely to pass. Bill characteristics associated with lower polarization could signal opportunities for future bipartisanship. Public Health Implications. Increasing partisan polarization could alter state-level vaccine policies in ways that jeopardize childhood immunization rates or weaken responsiveness during public health emergencies. Authorities should look for areas of bipartisan agreement on how to maintain vaccination rates.