Abstract
Donald Trump’s election as 47th president of the United States brings the endgame for the war in Ukraine into sharper focus. Based on comments since his first term, Trump’s mindset remains highly transactional on foreign policy in general and on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in particular. This is a war he pledged to end quickly, prompting Ukraine’s president Volodymir Zelenskyy to acknowledge that it will conclude in 2025. Trump’s modus operandi has been to deal with the other “strongest” person in the room and often ignore other stakeholders. This means any peace negotiation is likely to jump the tracks and occur bilaterally between Trump and Vladimir Putin, a dynamic Putin has endorsed. While his recent meetings with Zelenskyy in New York and Paris might suggest the possibility of daylight between himself and Putin on Ukraine, Trump may simply be pre-negotiation positioning. Nevertheless, this bit of the shifting landscape bears watching.